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08/09/2005: "Wikked Lil’ Grrrls"

i've been playing a lot of live poker lately. thrice weekly trips to Northside as well as spending last Wednesday in Lake Charles doing the riverboat shuffle. my online poker has noticably suffered, although my bankroll is certainly feeling the positive effects. month of August is +$1100 so far and July was +$1600. i want to be careful not to attribute this to more skill than luck - i think i am improving, to which i owe Barry Greenstein and Dan Harrington a tithe, but i seem to be running hot. proof? hit the jump!

~~~~

behold, the Wikked Lil’ Grrrls holding up 3-handed, pre-flop. at a full table o' ten, i was in MP, acting fourth. with limpers in front of me, i put in a raise of 15xBB (aside: at Northside, in the $1/$2 NL game, 3-5xBB raises are not real raises, they are stimulators. if you raise to $10 with big pocket pairs, i can assure you that you'll get all the callers you'd never want.) so here i sit, feeling like a big strong man. you'd think putting $32 into a pot holding $7 would limit the callers, right? hey, this is low-limit hold'em: any two cards play, bub.

the guy in seat 10 dinks all-in with his $78. no biggie, i am calling that all day; if he has AA or KK, so be it. it folds around to the guy in the small blind, who announces raise. raise, huh? he pushes $178 in. i've played with the SB before. i don't have much of a read on him, but i have seen him play fast and loose in the $1/$2 PL, $1/$2 NL and the $6/$6 NL. he bluffed a guy with fishhooks out of a $150 pot earlier in the evening with nothing - and he showed us. so i am thinking i could be way behind here if he is acting strong and actually holding strong cards. 4-to-1 dog anyone?

i go tankward. i get his remaining chip count (roughly $225), i do the pot odds, the implied odds, and then, for some reason, i think of ol' Dan Harrington. yeah, i know, his books are for tournament play, but it does have some advice that can marginally transfer. specifically i think of pages 228-9 in Vol 1:


QQ & Countering the All-in

· When
  o When you have raised with QQ, one player has called and another goes all-in

· Mistakes
 o Common mistake is simply calling
 o Or putting in a small raise

· Why all-in?
 o More than likely chases out one player and isolates the other.
 o Increases odds of winning
 o Eliminates drawing hands



granted, doesn't exactly match-up with my situation, but it does make me think about my play here.

so the question is, do i just call and see the flop? do i want to put this guy all in? re-raising might cost that, and the SB is going to be getting 3-to-1 on his money if he is all-in. going all-in leaves me with roughly $200 on the table - sticking me for $300 of my buy-in. what do you do?

after several minutes of contemplation, i decide to raise him all-in, creating a pot of about $900. yeah, in $1/$2 NL. makes you see why i buy-in for $300-$500.

seat 10 shows K Q.
SB shows AQoff.

i am drawing to no outs, but i have the best hand so far.

flop brings two more puppy feet, but pairs no one. seat 10 catches more outs.

turn misses both of them and the river bricks a worthless heart.

those Hilton Bitches hold up! someone tell the dealer to ship it!

in hindsight, i dunno if that was completely the right move. i put both guys on a pretty wide range, from AK down to AJ, either suited or unsuited. i also thought both players could be wired from AA down to tens. using the Gap Theory, you gotta think that the SB has a better hand than seat 10. it certainly crossed my mind that either player could have found aces or kings. to counter this fear, i recalled Alspach's calculations, which show that there was an 8.5% chance of either one of them was holding aces or kings. i also considered that it was possible that the pre-raise limpers could have held A-x, which would be ideal should both the ten seat and the SB hold AK or AQ. other positive holdings would have been for the ten seat to have aces and the SB to have any A-x; i might still have to outrun flush draws, but i would be getting a pretty good price on the side pot.

ultimately my gamble paid off this time. btw, the guy in the seat next to me folded ATsuited when i raised. he said he was planning on limping until i put in my money. ;^)

better to be lucky than good?

anyway in other news, the trip to Lake Charles was pretty uneventful. i took 3 shitty beats in the tournament and was out before the break. i earned $600 off the $5/$5 NL tables, which helped ease my pain. i straddled each time i had the chance, just for giggles. i even played the Hammer a few times, but failed to nail anyone with it. so is life.

tonight is $1/$2 NL and tomorrow is the $6/$6 game at Northside. i will make tomorrow's game for sure, since it starts at 2PM and allows me to play a few hours and still make it home to wifey; the verdict is out for tonight.

in other news, the shop is pretty close to being a real business. we have our '03 and '04 taxes filed and paid, which is pretty damn skippy. i still don't think i got my money's worth from our government, but at least it's paid. ps - big ups to my tax attorney; he's worth his weight in gold (and he is a big guy!) next step is to get QuickBooks Online up and sync'd with the CPA and choose a software system to manage the bookings/check-ins. i'm glad we're finally getting around to getting some things done (well, besides the daily chore of just running the place.)

i think Dar and I are finally going to buy a second car. it's been roughly two years that we have been with only the Montero. for most people this wouldn't work, but heck, we do spend roughly 24 hours a day with each other. still, on our days off it can be a pain with only one car. Dar wants a cheap Chrysler Sebring convertible. she's looking to spend less than $10K and just get a clean, used car that she can bop around in. conversely, i want something like an Audi TT or a Jeep, both of which cover her convertible requirement; i am looking at them only being a year or two old and having very low miles, making owning them for four years very doable. we'll see. basically we're shoping all the online sites - eBay does appeal to me, esp when there are several seller's in the Houston area who list on eBay.

other things are in the works, but i'll play those close to my chest until they look more realistic.

as always, ttfn!


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