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08/10/2005: "decisions not outcomes"

i'm not sure if i am looking for affirmation or consolation - but i am certainly going to be replaying this hand over and over for a few days:

~~~~

seat 1: TAG
seat 2: LAG
seat 3: LAG (likes to gambool)
seat 4: ROCK
seat 5: empty
seat 6: LAG (big stack, heavy gambler, bookie)
seat 7: LAG
seat 8: me
seat 9: TAG
seat 10: ROCK

BUTTON is seat 3
blinds are $6/$6

seat 7 - calls $6
seat 8 - i raise to $31
seat 9 - folds
seat 10 - folds
seat 1 - folds
seat 2 - folds
seat 3- calls $31
seat 4 - folds
seat 5 - empty
seat 6 - re-raises to $75

i re-reraise to $200
BUTTON folds
BB calls $125 more with 15- 30 seconds deliberation

pre-flop pot = $ 468

i have $269 behind
BB has roughly 2-3x my stack

flop comes
Q-10-x

i act first and go all-in for my remaining $269
BB calls $269

BB shows
i show

i decline insurance which would have returned $150 to me.

turn brings 10 and BB makes full house

river brings 9

final pot = $1006

so what is the correct play? what is the perfect play? (to quote Barry Greenstein)

my thoughts:

if i had called his reraise of $75 preflop and then the queen comes out in the door, i still would have bet out and probably not had a good idea of where i was. conversely, i might have assumed he made a set easier with what surely would have been his call or re-raise here. i guess this is the point they make about lose a lot with aces, win a little....

if i had gone all-in in my re-raise of his $75, in my estimation there is about a 40/60% chance of fold/call. the BB is a big time gambler and he likes to play the longshot odds if it means snapping one off in someone. so by this option, i would be putting $394 more in to win $218. would this have been a better option? would a larger raise here, but not all-in, been smarter?

if on the flop i had checked, i pretty much assume the BB would have bet out, probably a value bet, maybe say $100. i would have had $169 left for the turn and river. i can pretty much assume that i would have gotten all my money in with this option; it wouldn't have saved me any cash.

so what range did i put the BB on. on his raise i figured big pocket pairs: AA - JJ and AK & AQ suited. when he called my reraise, i guessed AA or KK. i had completely eliminated QQ as an option. serious mistake?

well, it is all over but the crying, but i would certainly like to hear how other would have played it, or critiques of my play. i can handle constructive criticism, so don't hold back.

thanks in advance!

Replies: 4 Comments

I would've played it about the same. Looks like you started the hand with $469 and he had you covered. After his raise to $75, you should raise an amount that the flop all-in is both obvious and necessary. In a tournament, I'd raise exactly what you did to induce action in a situation where you need to get chips or get out. In a cash game, I'd bet over a fourth of his stack or all-in, whichever is smaller unless of course, the stacks were real deep (150-200 big blinds each).

Anyway, he is calling $125 to win your $469 plus what is in the pot so far (his $75 and the other's $30 basically). $125 to win about $570. He'll flop a set 1 in 7, so he doesn't have odds to call if he thinks you have aces/kings because you're pushing the flop no matter what. Your raise amount wasn't bad. I would've made him call about $150-$200 myself.

good hand .. bad results

doubleas said @ 08/11/2005 08:01 AM CST

thanks, Double.

i definitely was not liking my raise of $125 when i saw him call it. my gut there was that i was not obvious enough in signalling aces, or that he had kings. Harrington says when you have kings you'll run into aces about 1 out of 24 times...i was hoping this was his time.

this was a cash game, not a tournament - i guess my bet was geared towards my standard play, which is more tournament oriented.

i appreciate the insight, esp. in regards to upping my re-reraise a bit. wouldn't have altered the results, but definitely would have been more in tune with what Greenstein calls 'perfect play'.

lastly, i know this is a pretty standard occurance: aces are cracked and the pot is often significant. just stings a little when i have lost two $1K+ pots with aces (in cash games) in the last ten days.

as Dinkin says, "decisions not outcomes."

-->bcd

bcd said @ 08/11/2005 01:55 PM CST

Just to reiterate, I don't think you made an awful reraise. You took away odds and got action. That's what you want right? If the board comes 8-high, he probably calls and loses his stack most of the time.

I'd be interested in why he thought calling was better than folding or raising all-in. We'll never know, but it doesn't make sense to me. Why put in almost half your stack preflop if you're not going all-in on the flop no matter what.

doubleas said @ 08/11/2005 03:55 PM CST

i play with this guy fairly often; as a matter of fact, for the first 3 hours of play during this cash game i was seated directly to his right (i moved seats later b/c i wanted to act after him and another guy.)

we'll call him Bookie, b/c that is what he does for a living. as an aside, he had 9 dimes in play just on baseball that day/night. it's funny, when playing poker he spends more time on the phone, writing in his notebook, and checking his pager than he does playing poker.

that said, Bookie is a huge gambler. he called a $30 preflop raise while away from the table - blind. he proceeded to play the whole hand blind for about $200 - and won it on the river with an ace (pairing his hole ace, which he didn't even know he had.)

so Bookie likes to gambooool. he was stuck in the game for about $800 at this point. i think prior to this hand he had about $1200 (more or less - he a a full stack of green ($500) plus 4-7 stacks of red ($100 each) on the table; i know he had bought in for $500, plus 3 rebuys so he had some coin in play. that is pretty standard play for him. again, he had 9 dimes on baseball, so poker was the least of his concern.

i knew all this going in. that's why i couldn't rule out that he was trying to hit a hand, although i seriously thought he would be hitting a flush or pairing say AK or AQ. when he cold-called the $125, i pretty much put him on AA or KK - bad read.

i think he called b/c he was playing the odds that he would make a big score. in other words, calling the $125, making his play in this pot $200, would allow him to see the flop. if he missed, he might toss it and only have lost 1/6th or so of this stack. if he hits, he knows he is getting all my money, which would put him even or better. at least, this is how i am trying to see things from his shoes.

to be honest, when i go back sunday to play, i am sure i will see Bookie and i am sure he will explain it to me. he is a pretty honest guy - if he explains a play, there is little chance he is trying to set you up for further scores. again, he likes to gamboool.

appreciate the insight. moving up to where i am seeing $1K pots is new to me. i can handle the swings bankrollwise b/c i only gamble with pre-defined poker money, but it is still unnerving to see pots get that big. it always help to have advice from those who play bigger...i still gotta grow!

-->bcd

bcd said @ 08/11/2005 05:29 PM CST


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